![]() ![]() On the other hand, big favorites are safest from upsets when they can play on cruise control and translate their skill advantage into point differential without dealing with chaos or trickery. But a giant which can’t accelerate games to its advantage can find it hard to shake a killer which hangs around. ![]() The more possessions in a game, the more likely the better team will pile up a wide scoring margin. It’s also smart for low seeds to keep contests slow. But who cares about that in a win-or-go-home scenario? In the NCAA Tournament, it pays to take puncher’s chances. When they don’t, they can lead a team to get blown out. Sure, these tactics can yield inconsistent results: When they work, they increase either the number or value of a team’s possessions. So longshots typically crash the boards or scheme for offensive rebounds. Broadening a team’s scoring variability boosts its chances of tripping up a superior opponent. In general, we have found that underdogs win by playing high-risk/high-reward styles. We should expect at least some return to normalcy in 2022.īut whatever changes to background conditions this spring brings, the essentials for earning a glass slipper remain the same. And underdogs lucked into an unusually high number of terrific matchups. A bubble-encased tournament cut into travel and fan-support advantages that major programs traditionally enjoy. Last year’s shortened regular season made it more difficult to evaluate and seed teams accurately. We’re happy to say Slingshot pinpointed the slayer potential of a slew of successful underdogs, from Abilene Christian to North Texas to Loyola-Chicago to Ohio to Syracuse.īrackets aren’t likely to explode at the same rate this time around. When a team beats an opponent seeded at least five slots higher, we call that a giant-killing, and that happened 14 times in last year’s tournament, the most ever. A 15-seed (Oral Roberts) made the Sweet Sixteen, a 12-seed ( Oregon State) reached the Elite Eight, and an 11-seed ( UCLA) advanced to the Final Four. Four squads seeded 13th or worse in their regions won at least one game. Last year, of course, turned out to be a banner year for Cinderellas. ![]()
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